LIVE – Elezioni Regionali in Sardegna
Liveblogging leggero fino a che non inizieranno ad arrivare i primi dati sulla sfida Soru-Cappellacci. Anche da Andrea, ovviamente. I nomi di Cavalli e Scuderie sono presi dal blog di Andrea, ovviamente.
Ore 0.11: E’ confermato che Berlusconi sa fare le campagne elettorali meglio di chiunque altro. Buonanotte a tutti. Soru e Veltroni soprattutto. Avranno da riflettere.
Ore 0.02: Inizia il primo giorno dell’era Cappellacci…
Ore 23.56: Soru: “Aspettiamo”. Cappellacci:”Non mi aspettavo una vittoria così”.
Ore 23.51: Ricordiamo che qualcuno girava con sondaggi gridando “Soru Presidente”..Alè!
Ore 23.47: CAPPELLACCI PRESIDENTE, CRIBBIO!
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Ore 19.50: IO VADO A VEDERMI GRIGNANI E VI LASCIO CON UNA PARITA’ PRESSOCHE’ ASSOLUTA. CI SENTIAMO STANOTTE.
SEGUITE LE DIRETTE DI TheRightNation, Mondopiccolo, Ciwati, Andrea Mollica, Il Fazioso Liberale. E LASCIATE STARE I MEDIA TRADIZIONALI CHE SONO NOIOSI 
Ore 19.48: Tiscali guadagna lo 0.7%. Segnali.
Ore 19.42: L’unica cosa su cui tutti concordano è che si andrà tardi, stanotte. Io vi preannuncio che al Teatro di Udine c’è Grignani e che io vado a vedermelo. Alla faccia di Soru e Cappellacci. Ma più di Soru.
Ore 19.34: Dopo 111 sezioni Soru 49.4%, Cappellacci 45.7%
Ore 19.27: Secondo me, in questo momento, Cappellacci ha qualche possibilità in più di Soru. Ma è un dato di pancia e nient’altro. I numeri veri confermano una parità quasi assoluta e le voci incontrollate da ambo le parti sembrano, quasi ad esorcizzare, attribuire la vittoria all’avversario.
Ore 19.23: Comune di Cagliari 50.66%-45.45% per Cappellacci dopo 60 sezioni scrutinate (su 179). Nel 2004 a Cagliari finì 50 a 42. Crollano le bianche/nulle/contestate da 3.86% a circa la metà.
Ore 19.14: La mia previsione previsione per la Sardegna: Soru o primo o secondo, Cappellacci o primo o secondo. Alè.
Ore 19.12: Ancora niente di serio. Ma Cappellacci, dopo 62 sezioni passa in vantaggio e cala drasticamente il voto disgiunto.
Ore 19.04: Lo staff di Cappellacci annuncia circa 6.000 voti di vantaggio per il candidato del centrodestra dopo verifiche effettuate in 242 sezioni. Pare strano che, senza esserne sicuri, si lancino in voli pindarici del genere. Una figuraccia rischierebbe di seppellirli.
Ore 18.53: L’unica cosa “sensibile” che si può trarre dai primi seggi scrutinati è la tendenza ad un voto disgiunto che come nelle previsioni premia Soru (+3% sul voto di lista) rispetto a Cappellacci (-4% rispetto alla sua coalizione).
Ore 18.21: I primi dati,che danno davanti Soru, sono troppo parziali per meritare un commento, anche se sono gli unici dati reali. La geografia dell’affluenza premierebbe il candidato del centrosinistra, tuttavia occorre essere iperprudenti. Molti, moltissimi i voti contestati.
Ore 17.52: La nostra scala di equivalenza (affluenza-risultati) dava Soru +0.3% con affluenza al 67.5%
Ore 17.47: L’affluenza definitiva è del 67.58%. Esattamente il numerino che ci avevano detto essere quello indecifrabile. Sopra avrebbe vinto Soru, sotto Cappellacci. Aspettiamo.
Ore 16.29: diverse fonti confermerebbero un’affluenza superiore al 68% (anche Termometro Politico). Con questi dati Soru è +2.2.
Ore 16.27: La mancanza pressochè totale di dati è dovuta alla mancanza del dato sull’affluenza. Se troppo alta in certe province, Soru ce l’ha fatta.
Ore 16.17: La fonte vicina al centrodestra ci conferma il vantaggio, leggero, di Soru, dovuto all’alta affluenza nelle Province a lui favorevole.
Ore 15.50: Una fonte vicina al Centrodestra ci dice di un Soru in vantaggio di 2.2 punti su Cappellacci.
Ore 15.25: Per Andrea è Cappellacci 49.4 - Soru 48.7
Ore 15.21: Solo con il dato dell’affluenza riusciremo a darvi una prima, parzialissima, proiezione incrociata con i dati che stanno arrivando. Se l’affluenza fosse confermata attorno al 64%, Cappellacci potrebbe essere leggermente sopra.
Ore 15.19: Crespi dice +1.5% Soru. Si tratta di un sondaggio fatto nei giorni scorsi, NON di un exitpoll.
Ore 14.13: Offshore 49.26 – Jag 48.46.
Ma è un dato che non tiene conto della correzione dell’affluenza e potrebbe sovrastimare di qualche decimo Offshore.
Ore 14.02: Il dato sull’affluenza starebbe spingendo in avanti Jag. A secondi l’ultima proiezione in nostro possesso,poi si conta.
Ore 12.57: Offshore 49.1, Jag 48.9. Con un distacco 3.000 galoppate circa…troppo poco per sbilanciarsi.
Ore 12.14: Alle 12.45 avremo una proiezione precisa sui dati. Molto precisa.
Ore 12.01: secondo AffariItaliani, invece, l’ottimismo sarebbe del centrodestra.
Ore 11.57: niente di nuovo, tranne un certo, moderato, ottimismo nella scuderia di Jag.
Ore 11.18: Fosse vero il dato del cavallo autonomista sotto il 2%, allora per Jag si mette bene, per Off male.
Ore 11.07: Un dato interno alla scuderia verde darebbe Jag +4% su Off.
Ore 10.58: Reggeremo la Maledizione Nuragica??
Ore 10.46: Secondo i dati in nostro possesso, l’affluenza finale sarà del 64%.
Ore 10.40: Dicono che il Premier Silvio Berlusconi, questa mattina, fosse particolarmente raggiante…
Ore 10.25: ExitPoll parzialissimo: Offshore +3.8%, Scuderia Varenne + 7%. Questo confermerebbe un certo voto “personale” del cavallo uscente. Che sposterebbe, ma non a sufficienza.
Ore 9.43: Più che spifferi sono veri e propri venti gelidi, quelli che spirano dalla Sardegna. C’è un internal PdL per niente bello…Ma io non so niente.
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